Trump's Lead Narrows in New Hampshire GOP Primary Race

Created: JANUARY 24, 2025

Recent polling data from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center reveals a tightening race in the Republican presidential primary. While former President Donald Trump maintains his frontrunner status with 37% support among likely GOP voters, his lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has diminished. DeSantis currently holds 23% support, shrinking Trump's advantage to 14 points, down from 20 points in the previous UNH poll conducted in April.

Former President Donald Trump addresses a gathering in Manchester, New Hampshire.

This latest poll, conducted in mid-July, shows a smaller gap between Trump and DeSantis compared to other recent New Hampshire surveys. Trailing behind the top two contenders are Senator Tim Scott (8%), former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (6%), and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum (6%). Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy each garnered 5% support.

Both Trump and DeSantis have actively campaigned in New Hampshire, holding competing events in late June. Trump also recently established his campaign headquarters in the state. His decisive win in the 2016 New Hampshire primary, following a narrow loss in the Iowa caucuses, played a crucial role in securing the Republican nomination.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis participates in a parade.

Despite the current standings, the race remains fluid. Only 35% of likely Republican voters in the UNH survey indicated they were firmly committed to their chosen candidate. However, among Trump supporters, that figure rises to 76%. It's worth noting that this poll was conducted before the recent news regarding the January 6th investigation and Trump's status as a target of the probe.

Senator Tim Scott speaks at an event.

The UNH survey involved 898 likely Republican primary voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

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