Speculation is swirling around Senator Joe Manchin's potential third-party presidential bid in 2024, and many political figures believe it could significantly impact the election landscape, potentially benefiting former President Trump. Several senators, including prominent Trump critic Mitt Romney, have voiced concerns that a No Labels candidate, like Manchin, would primarily draw votes away from President Biden, clearing a path for a Trump victory should he secure the Republican nomination.

Romney suggested a simple poll could demonstrate this effect: a three-way race between Biden, Trump, and Manchin would likely show Manchin pulling more support from Biden than Trump. A recent Quinnipiac University poll revealed that nearly half of all voters would consider a third-party candidate, with independents showing the strongest interest. This openness to alternatives suggests dissatisfaction with both Biden and Trump among a substantial portion of the electorate.

Manchin's appearance at a No Labels town hall in New Hampshire has fueled speculation about his presidential ambitions. While he emphasized the need for a centrist option, he stopped short of confirming a run. Senator Rand Paul speculated that Manchin, perceived as a fiscally conservative Democrat, could attract votes from both disillusioned Democrats and Republicans wary of Trump's stance on military and foreign policy issues. Paul also noted that Cornel West's Green Party candidacy could further erode Biden's support base.

Some Democrats have expressed serious concerns about a Manchin candidacy. Senator Debbie Stabenow argued that splitting the anti-Trump vote would be detrimental to the country, potentially handing Trump the presidency. Senator Tim Kaine, Hillary Clinton's 2016 running mate, echoed these sentiments, urging No Labels to focus on bipartisan legislative efforts rather than dividing the pro-democracy vote in what he sees as a critical battle against authoritarianism.