For nearly 14 years, Bashar al-Assad’s regime waged a brutal campaign against its own people, aiming to quell dissent through terror and widespread killing. This ruthless strategy, often summarized as "Assad or we burn the country," has resulted in a devastating human toll. Estimates suggest at least half a million Syrians have perished, with over 130,000 more vanishing into a network of detention centers, torture chambers, and execution sites. The regime's systematic use of industrial crematoriums and "iron presses" to dispose of bodies underscores the horrific scale of these atrocities. From 2012 to 2016, the indiscriminate use of approximately 82,000 barrel bombs on urban centers, coupled with nearly 340 documented chemical weapons attacks targeting civilian populations, further intensified the suffering. The recent overthrow of Assad brings a sense of profound relief, yet the path to lasting stability in the region remains a formidable challenge.

President Biden's declaration of Assad's downfall marks a significant turning point. However, it's worth noting that, until recently, his administration was reportedly considering easing sanctions on the regime. While understandable given the desire for stability, this approach reflects a long-held miscalculation regarding the Syrian conflict – the belief that Assad's grip on power was unbreakable.

This perspective overlooked the escalating tensions within Syria. Despite apparent stagnation, hostilities had been steadily intensifying. With Russian backing, Assad’s regime initiated a campaign of suicide drone attacks on civilian areas in northwest Syria, launching hundreds of these devices within months. Indiscriminate artillery shelling also saw a marked increase. Simultaneously, the humanitarian crisis deepened, with international aid dwindling.

International attention, when present, primarily focused on the symptoms of the crisis, such as ISIS and the refugee exodus, rather than the root cause: the Assad regime. While addressing these symptoms is crucial, it's essential to recognize that the regime itself was the primary driver of instability, responsible for the vast majority of civilian deaths.

The regime's internal decay, fueled by divisions and pervasive organized crime, further contributed to its vulnerability. Growing resistance within formerly opposition-held areas and calls for Assad's removal from minority groups signaled the regime's weakening grip. These developments, though visible, were largely overlooked by policymakers, leading to the unexpected swiftness of Assad's downfall. The Biden administration, in its final weeks, faces limitations in its response. Collaboration with regional allies and engagement with actors on the ground are crucial to shaping the future of Syria. Protecting U.S. partners in northeast Syria, particularly the SDF, is paramount, as their precarious situation could necessitate a U.S. troop withdrawal, jeopardizing the fight against ISIS and the security of detention facilities holding thousands associated with the terror group. The incoming Trump administration's stance on Syria remains uncertain, with Trump previously downplaying its significance. However, given the dramatic shifts and the impact on Iran, such a perspective would be a grave misjudgment.