An upcoming report from the Biden administration concerning the environmental effects of increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports has the potential to complicate President-elect Trump's plans to swiftly authorize new licenses for the fuel. The report, expected by mid-December, will assess the economic and environmental ramifications of boosting U.S. LNG exports. The Department of Energy (DOE) is mandated to evaluate whether such exports align with public interest before issuing permits, according to the Natural Gas Act.

While some downplay the report's impact, believing Trump could simply reverse any Biden-era restrictions on natural gas, others suggest it could empower environmental groups challenging the new administration. Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners emphasized the need for robust documentation to support new permits, stating, "Corporate sponsors don't invest billions based on shaky permits." He explained that if the report presents arguments against new permits, the Trump administration would need to counter with a revised study or interpretation, a process potentially spanning weeks, months, or even quarters.

The U.S. Department of Energy headquarters in Washington, D.C.

Jeff Kupfer, president of ConservAmerica and former DOE official, voiced support for LNG exports but acknowledged the report's potential to hinder licensing. He noted it could provide ammunition, even if unsubstantiated, for opponents of LNG exports. However, other experts believe the report's impact will be limited. Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds, called it a "last-ditch effort" and questioned its effectiveness, particularly given the timing of the comment period likely falling under the Trump administration.

An LNG tank car at the Elbehafen port in Brunsbuettel, Germany.

The Biden administration's January "temporary pause" on new LNG export permits included a DOE review of the environmental impact analysis used to comply with the Natural Gas Act. This act requires the DOE to assess the public interest implications of natural gas exports before issuing permits. This requirement excludes countries with free trade agreements with the U.S., but Book points out that 80% of the LNG market consists of countries without such agreements.

President Biden has frequently targeted the fossil fuel industry as part of his climate agenda.

Trump has indicated his intent to immediately lift the pause on natural gas exports to stimulate domestic energy production, as part of his broader plan to roll back Biden's climate regulations. He has promised expedited approvals and permits for companies investing at least $1 billion in the U.S. A Trump-Vance Transition spokeswoman emphasized Trump's mandate to lower energy costs and restore American energy dominance. The DOE has not yet commented on the matter.